Gambler's Ruin
What matters more – Your skill or Your starting position?
Let us make the question a bit more concrete using the classic example of Gambler’s Ruin. This example involves two players. Player 1 has greater skill, player 2 has a greater bankroll. Player 1 starts off with limited resources, say 1,000 dollars. Player 2 starts off with 10,000 dollars at their disposal. The players compete in a series of rounds, betting the same amount in each round.
The game ends once a player is "ruined", i.e., the player goes bankrupt. Here are the rules -
- The Players decides on how much money they will bet in each game
- Bet size does not change throughout the entire game
- The players play each other in a round
- The loser hands over the money based on the agreed bet amount to the winner
- Players keep playing rounds till either player has run out of money
Player 1 Bankroll : 1,0000
Player 2 Bankroll : 10,000
Player Advantage : 10%
Size of Bet :500
This website plays the game 1,000 times and tracks the number of times the player wins.
You can adjust two variables -
- The advantage that Player 1 has. This is how much more likely Player 1 is to win each game as opposed to Player 2.
- The size of the bet that is being made during the games. If either player has less money than the bet size, they go all in with the money they have.
Player 1 Total Wins :
Player 2 Total Wins :
Player 1 Success Percentage :
Rounds Played Per Game :
